BYU football: Ranking the 2016 opponents

Kalani Sitake and his new staff head into 2016 with arguably the hardest schedule in BYU history waiting for them.

Today, we take a look at the upcoming schedule and I share my opinion on what games will be the toughest to win for the Cougars.

12. Southern Utah - Win Confidence: 99%

We’re going to start off with the most surefire win. Sure, BYU could lose this game and SUU will probably be motivated to face their former coach in Ed Lamb, but you can go ahead and chalk this game up as a W for BYU.

11. UMass - Win Confidence: 98%

Now that I start to write this down, I actually think a game featuring SUU and UMass would be really entertaining. The Minutemen are an FBS program, but beyond that, there isn’t much that separates them from SUU.

10. Toledo - Win Confidence: 75%

Toledo is coming off one of the best seasons in program history. If this game was being played in 2015, I’d still pick BYU to win by a decent sized margin, but I wouldn’t be very confident in that pick. The Rockets lost a bunch of talent heading into 2016 and their head coach, Matt Campbell left for Iowa State. It would be a major disappointment if BYU somehow didn’t win this game.

9. Utah State - Win Confidence: 70%

Matt Wells has continued to maintain a great program in Logan. It will be interesting to see how Utah State performs this year without players like Kyler Fackrell and Nick Vigil who anchored the Aggie defense for awhile. It’s hard to predict what this game will look like when you consider the Aggies will travel to Provo for the last game of the regular season. Honestly, the outcome could come down to who has the healthier team.

8. Cincinnati - Win Confidence: 60%

The Bearcats are going to be a threat in the AAC this year. Cincy returns quarterbacks Hayden Moore (and Gunner Kiel, for that matter) and will have a great passing offense once again. The Cougars travel to Nippert Stadium and that could end up being an advantage that seals a win for Cincy.

7. Arizona - Win Confidence: 58%

Depending on what kind of mood I’m in, I sometimes think BYU is a lock to win this game and then there are other times I absolutely think Arizona runs away with this one. BYU will be pumped for Sitake’s debut and, potentially, the return of Taysom Hill. The game is in Phoenix, but there will be a whole lot of BYU blue filling that stadium.

6. Boise State - Win Confidence: 48%

This is the first game that I’m more confident in a BYU loss than a BYU win. That said, it could go either way. I don’t think Boise will have quite as much talent as they’ve had in the last couple years, but it is so hard for any team to win on the blue turf that I can’t bring myself to picking BYU. I reserve the right to change this pick before October 20, but as of today, I’m leaning Boise.

5. West Virginia - Win Confidence: 48%

The West Virginia offensive attack is the kind of offense that gave Kalani Sitake-led defenses fits while he was at Utah. BYU also has to travel across the country to play the Mountaineers. If the game was in Provo, I think BYU is the favorite, but since it’s not, the scale is tipping the other way.

4. Mississippi State - Win Confidence: 45%

This is arguably the most exciting game coming into Provo this year. It’s not every day that the SEC makes their way to LaVell Edwards Stadium. The Bulldogs are a mess and they lost their most consistent offensive weapon in quarterback Dak Prescott to the NFL this year. It’s always going to be tough for BYU to match up athletically with teams from the Ess-Eee-See, but there are a lot of factors that swing in BYU’s favor with this game.

3. UCLA - Win Confidence: 35%

BYU hung really well in the Rose Bowl last year with a UCLA team that -at the time- was a top-10 team in the country . UCLA lost a few big time players this year to the NFL, but the Bruins will still feature the best quarterback on BYU’s schedule this year in sophomore Josh Rosen. Rosen is an elite talent and now has a full year under his belt in the UCLA program. This game will be challenging for BYU.

2. Utah - Win Confidence: 25%

I saw the Las Vegas Bowl. I know that BYU played really well outside of the first seven minutes of the game. I know that rivalry games are traditionally close games that come down to a single score. I know all of that, but I still have very little confidence that BYU pulls out a win. It’s not easy to win at Rice-Eccles Stadium. There will be lots of emotion for Sitake as he heads back into the stadium that shaped him into the coach he is today. And that Utah defense is going to be good, really good. I’ve seen too many Holy War games over the last few years to pick against Utah here.

1. Michigan State - Win Confidence : 15%

Connor Cook is gone but Michigan State seems to reload at quarterback these days. Mike Dantonio has established a legitimate powerhouse in East Lansing. The Spartans will routinely be ranked in the upper echelon of college football teams. I don’t think anyone, even those in the thickest of BYU goggles, can expect BYU to leave the state of Michigan with a win this year.

What's your confidence level in BYU in their games against the 2016 opponents? Join the conversation at our premium message board, The Blue Zone by signing up for a subscription with us today.

Jeff Hansen is a Senior Recruiting Analyst for Cougar Nation. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @rakoto10.